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Citigroup Forecasts the UK Inflation Rate to Return to 2% by Autumn, Creating Hope for the Country.

Inflation has been a major concern for the UK economy, with the rate surging to double-digit figures in January 2022. However, Citigroup’s recent UK inflation forecast provides a glimmer of hope for the country, as the bank predicts inflation to fall to close to 2% by the end of the year. 

The projections by the US-based investment bank, released on Wednesday, predict that the country’s consumer price inflation will fall to 2.3% in November, significantly lower than the Bank of England’s forecast of around 4% for the same period. The Citigroup forecast has been attributed to a rapid fall in gas prices, which, in turn, is expected to result in a lower energy price cap in the 4th quarter of this year.

Citigroup Forecasts the UK Inflation Rate to Return to 2% by Autumn, Creating Hope for the Country.​

Benjamin Nabarro, Citi’s chief UK economist, has stated that faster reduction in inflation reflects an easing in pricing pressures, primarily in energy. The fall in energy prices is due to wholesale gas prices, which have dropped by over 80% since last August, with the price of UK gas for delivery in September halving in the past two months from £2.60 a therm to £1.26 a therm. The reductions in energy prices are expected to translate into a lower energy price cap in the fourth quarter of this year, which is expected to pull down inflation.

Citigroup forecasts for the UK economy are a relief to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government, which has been dealing with inflation concerns for months. The inflation rate in January was at a staggering 10.1%, which, if not controlled, could have led to a rise in UK interest rates and slowed the economic recovery. The fall in inflation will, therefore, make it easier for the government to tackle public sector strikes over pay and fulfil its promise of halving inflation by the end of the year.

Citigroup has used various economic indicators and trends for UK inflation forecasts. The analysis is based on a range of factors, including changes in the price of gas, retail prices, and other economic variables. Citigroup’s analysis focuses on energy prices, which are known to be volatile and can cause significant changes in inflation.

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According to Nabarro, the rapid decline in inflation is also expected to limit the cost of servicing the UK’s inflation-linked government debt. The forecast is that retail price index inflation used to uprate £560bn of inflation-linked government debt, is likely to fall rapidly. Nabarro expects the RPI measure of inflation to drop from the current rate of 13.4% to 4.3% in the fourth quarter of this year, well below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November forecast of 6.3% towards the end of 2023.

The return to 2% inflation has important implications for the UK economy and financial markets. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold until inflation returns to target, which could significantly impact the economy. If inflation returns to 2%, this Autumn inflation rate could help the Bank of England to decide to increase UK interest rates slowly, reducing the risk of a sudden economic shock.

In conclusion, Citigroup’s UK inflation forecast, returning to 2% by autumn, comes as a relief to the country’s economy. The fall in inflation, attributed to reduced gas prices, is expected to help the government tackle public sector strikes over pay and fulfil its promise of halving inflation by the end of the year. Citigroup’s analysis of the UK economy and various economic indicators and trends helps provide insights into the country’s economic recovery.

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Ashish Verma

Ashish Verma is the founder and CTO of Secvolt, with close to 10 years of experience in the IT industry. He has been the technical backbone of the company and has worked tirelessly to make the technical infrastructure robust. He is a passionate entrepreneur who generates solutions that have the potential to bring change.

In order to ease the client’s interaction with Secvolt, he has strived to develop the business’s technological foundation and establish a user-friendly platform. Ashish has also contributed substantially to smoothening the company’s administration and ensuring that there are no lacunae in the broad structure of the organization. 

Early Years

Coming from a middle-class family, he was aware of the problems that people faced while using technology. He sought to create something that was simple to use yet had a powerful effect. As he studied computer science, he became eager to offer a solution to real issues. He began his professional career at Amdocs, where he gained expertise in client management while catering to more than 20 clients. Later, he moved to Citicorp, where he had exposure to the investment industry. His time at Amdocs and Citi enabled him to produce high-standard, efficient, and scalable technical infrastructure.

He left corporate jobs for his startup because he was passionate about working on the concept of a smart city platform. He expanded the concept internationally and even collaborated with Global Dignity-Kuwait. Things didn’t work out for him the first time. He states, “My failures didn’t stop me from experimenting and trying new things.” He rose from the ashes like a phoenix and founded FewerClicks, an End to End IT solution company.

He worked on the creation of Solster Finance, a decentralized financial platform based on the Solana blockchain. He created this platform single-handedly which has helped the team raise a $1M investment and a revenue of more than $5M within 6 months of launching. 

He has previously worked on many blockchain technologies and cryptocurrency ventures, which include Decentralized Finance Applications (Defi), Decentralized Applications (Dapps), File Contracts (SIA, record-keeper), Smart Contracts (rust, solidity), and NFT Development. His experience and effective communication have helped many team members understand Secvolt effectively and the underlying technology it is powered by.

He possesses the ideal combination of strategic thinking and excellent business insight. He is responsible for formulating technical aspects of the company’s strategy to guarantee alignment with business objectives. With his drive to experiment with new technologies, he has helped Secvolt achieve a competitive edge. Being in charge, Ashish never holds back in encouraging the different departments to make profitable use of technology, helping to grow as an unstoppable team at Secvolt!

Hanif Shaikh

Hanif Shaikh is the founder and CMO of Secvolt, with over 8 years of experience in the industry. He plays a crucial role when it comes to the growth of Secvolt. Since the beginning, he has acted as a mentor for each and every employee of the company, and he makes an effort to be accessible to his staff anytime they need him. 

Hanif first entered the Blockchain and Crypto world in 2016, and nothing has stopped him since. He views blockchain as a transparent platform that provides authority and accountability back to the people. He consistently believes that “overcommunication is better than miscommunication.” He has lived by this motto with his staff, clients, and networks.

Early Years

Hailing from Gujrat, a state in India, he is following his dream to contribute to making this world a better place. In the process, he has struggled, made some mistakes, and learned lessons from those mistakes to achieve success in life. His entrepreneurial attitude dates back to his childhood when he learned from his father’s business and aspired to have it all. He came from a humble background and had ambitions to succeed in life.

He has developed two successful businesses from scratch, and in the process, he has inspired young people to start their own businesses. He was an integral part of the Quora Mumbai Meetups and helped it become a great success in a short period of time. Later, he began organizing meetups to raise awareness about blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and their applications. He also shared his knowledge of ICOs, highlighted reputable ICOs, and established a small cryptocurrency community on WhatsApp groups.

He chose to go on a Blockchain Tour in India in 2019 and met some fascinating people. Throughout his journey, he has been able to build an extensive and robust network that has aided Secvolt’s growth. Because of his expertise and understanding of the Crypto Industry, he has been featured on several news channels and has advised the youth on the subject.

He is in charge of the company’s marketing operations and is responsible for developing its marketing strategy and vision. He oversees a group of passionate marketing professionals and plans promotional strategies with the goal of making  Secvolt a global brand. 

He is a perfect blend of a practical attitude and innovative business acumen. He believes in the ability of individuals to perform exceptionally well when given an environment to experiment and explore their passions; a culture that he has built at Secvolt.

Divakar Choudhary

Divakar Choudhary is the founder and CEO of Secvolt who has been trading for more than six years now. He started the business in 2018 with the conviction that if anybody could dominate the market, it was him. He poured all of himself into the business and turned Secvolt into a market-beating machine.

Divakar developed the fundamental quant models that perform risk management and capture alpha using his skills from the previous organization and his time spent in the market. In order to make the system effective, he backtested risk mitigation algorithms and worked on them for more than 4 years to produce results.

Early Years

He began his crypto journey in 2013 after getting his first gaming Laptop and melded in with the Blockchain community like sunbeams on the ocean. He created many YouTube channels at the age of 15 and businesses by the time he was 17. Technology has always piqued Divakar’s interest. He endeavored and succeeded at freelancing in his effort to achieve financial independence. However, he soon realized that freelancing would always keep him in the rat race, and the only way out would be to build a machine yielding generational wealth.

Soon, he started trading using his own capital but suffered a loss in the market. He says, “95% of people lose money & the rest 5% make money from the loss of those 95%.” He then began working on an effective technique to be included in this 5% after losing part of his own assets during the early stages of trading. He began evaluating quant strategies using statistical models.

With his methodology, he once produced a 20% ROI in a single month. With the zeal of creating something exceptional, he borrowed money from friends and family and generated decent returns for them using primitive quant models. Month after month, the system’s efficiency and the competence of the man behind it allowed for excellent market returns.

In the beginning, Divakar worked on his laptop for over 18 hours. It took every ounce of his energy as he executed about 530+ deals daily for 4 years to create this company from the ground up. In 2021, he increased his volume by 827%, trading a total of $52 million and hitting a single account.

In his words-

“What does becoming “THAT” GUY mean to you? Who did you need when you were young? Be that person!”

He is a perfect example of someone who followed his passion and made a fortune from it! He dreamt of creating generational wealth as a youngster, envisioned it as an adult, and is now making it a reality with Secvolt!